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© Copyright Arthur Levine 2006
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Article Source: ezinearticles.comIntermediate-term technical indicators suggest SPX will be much lower within six weeks. The chart below is an SPX daily chart, with indicators, since the end of the rally in Nov. The chart shows the NYSE Oscillator's (i.e. NYMO) 50-day MA peaked two months ago slightly above 25 and closed at 2.12 Fri. Normally, when the Oscillator's 50-day MA rises to 25, it will fall to negative 25. Also, the second half of the downtrend tends to be steeper than the first half.
Moreover, the chart shows, the VIX 200-day MA fell last week to 12.38. VIX closed at 11.85 Fri and has been below the 200-day MA over most of the past month. Consequently, the VIX 200-day MA may fall to the historically low 12.29 level reached in mid-Feb '94, when SPX pulled-back 9.7% in 60 calendar days from early-Feb to late-Mar '94. So, there may be little SPX upside, and at least a moderate pullback may take place over the next few weeks.
Last week, the technical short-term oversold condition of the market was neutralized. The Oscillator and Stochastics reached low levels early last week and then rose with the market late in the week. However, SPX may continue to rise to just below the Parabolic SAR (i.e. purple dots), similar to the rise in late Jan, before pulling back sharply, although the 10-day MA was resistance Fri. SPX generally traded around its Mar Max Pain point at 1,275 most of last week.
There are many important economic reports next week: Mon--None, Tue--Retail Sales, Current Account, Business Inventories, Wed--Import & Export Prices, Empire State Index, Oil Inventories, Fed's Beige Book, Thu--CPI, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, and Fri--Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Also, next week is an end-of-the-quarter options expiration week. Consequently, it may be a volatile week.
SPX has been in a slow and volatile uptrend, over the past 3 1/2 months, after the rally ended in Nov, which is a bearish pattern, e.g. a rising wedge (within another two year rising wedge) or a double top (or potential triple top). Uncertainty about monetary policy may heighten, although the FOMC is expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate 25 basis points Mar 28th, because of stagflation concerns, i.e. slowing growth with rising inflation.
Charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast section.
Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of www.PeakTrader.com Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.
Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time and over time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.
Article Source: ezinearticles.comThe VIX 200-day MA fell further last week and closed at 12.40 Fri. The multi-decade low was 12.29 in mid-Feb '94 during a 9.7% SPX correction over 60 calendar days from early-Feb to late-Mar. The 9.7% SPX pullback followed the longest period in history, i.e. 3 1/2 years, without over a 9% SPX correction. Currently, SPX is in the second longest period in history without a 9% or more pullback, i.e. over three years.
Last week, VIX continued to stay below the 200-day MA and closed at 11.96 Fri (see chart below). Also, the price chart shows SPX continued to trade in the upper half of the daily Bollinger Band, i.e. above the 20-day MA, currently at 1,278 1/2. A break below the 20-day MA may cause SPX to fall quickly to the lower Bollinger Band, currently at 1,254 1/4. SPX has generally held 1,250 for over three-months, in part, because 1,246 is a multi-year Fibonacci level.
The NYSE Oscillator (NYMO below) closed below negative 11, which suggests the first pullback will be limited, perhaps to around 1,260. SPX may then make another attempt to break 1,300, although 1,275, which has been a key level, and the 20 & 50 day MAs, which are rising toward 1,280, may turn back another rally attempt. It's uncertain how swiftly or slowly the potential pullback will take place. However, the bulk of the move could be on a few big down days or on a grinding downtrend over a few weeks, although, the week of Mar triple-witching expirations typically have slight upward biases.
There's a slim possibility that SPX will rise to the five-year high at 1,316 from current levels. However, both fundamental and technical data make it unlikely. More newsletter advisors are suggesting taking profits, the FOMC meeting is Mar 28th, the megaphone, head & shoulders, and rising wedge patterns are bearish, the VIX 200-day MA and SPX to VIX ratio reflect very high market risk, Nasdaq has lagged, SPX was turned away near 1,300, etc. Nonetheless, a breakout, e.g. a short-squeeze, above 1,300, perhaps on a steep fall in oil prices, should be taken into account, particularly if SPX closes above 1,295.
If SPX closes significantly below 1,246, the Jul to Oct congestion area between 1,200 and 1,240 is a major support zone. However, a 9% pullback would send SPX to the Oct lows. The Dow's MACD created a bearish crossover last week. If an SPX MACD bearish crossover seems inevitable, then selling may accelerate. Currently, the SPX MACD is moving towards a bearish crossover (see below). However, a bullish kiss may cause a powerful bounce. So, SPX's MACD will be an important indicator to watch next week.
Charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast section.
Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.
Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time and over time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.
Article Source: ezinearticles.com|
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